The Major U.S. Airline Most Likely To Cancel Your Flight, According To New Data
As the holiday rush approaches, fresh performance data offers a clearer picture of which airlines are most likely to scrub flights. A new analysis of federal figures names American Airlines as the major U.S. carrier with the highest cancellation rate in the first half of 2025. Here is what travelers should know before they book, including the reasons behind most cancellations, how 2025 compares with last year, and a full ranking of airlines from worst to best.
Why Cancellations Have Been Front and Center
Travelers across the country have dealt with elevated delays and cancellations in recent weeks amid a prolonged federal government shutdown. With large numbers of air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers going unpaid, the system has been operating under additional strain. As of today, more than a thousand flights have been delayed and over a hundred canceled within, into, or out of the United States.
The Study That Named a Clear No. 1
An analysis by SkyRefund of U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics data found that American Airlines recorded the highest cancellation rate among major U.S. carriers from January 1 through June 30, 2025. In that six month window, 2.69 percent of American’s flights were canceled. Frontier landed in the second spot with 1.85 percent of flights canceled over the same period.
What Is Causing Most Cancellations
The federal data points to weather as the dominant driver of cancellations. In the first half of 2025, weather accounted for 73.5 percent of all cancellations, leading to 43,785 scrubbed flights. Airlines themselves were responsible for 16 percent of cancellations, or 9,527 flights, due to issues such as crew availability, maintenance, and scheduling challenges.
2025 Is Tracking Better Than 2024
Despite the recent turbulence, the overall picture for 2025 looks improved compared to last year. During the first six months of this year, an estimated 4.3 million U.S. travelers had flights canceled, an improvement from 5.6 million in the same period of 2024. Industry observers say cancellations have fallen below pre pandemic levels as more airport upgrades come online and carriers refine operations.
What This Means For Holiday Travelers
The data offers timely insight for anyone booking peak season trips. Weather remains the biggest wild card, which means early flights, nonstop routes, and flexible itineraries can help reduce risk. If you are connecting through weather prone hubs, consider buffer time between flights. Keep airline apps turned on for live rebooking options, and save a backup list of alternate flights in case plans change.
Airline Cancellation Rates, From Worst To Best
Below is how major U.S. carriers ranked for cancellations in the first half of 2025, along with estimated counts:
- American Airlines: 2.69 percent canceled, about 26,513 flights
- Frontier: 1.85 percent canceled, about 1,836 flights
- Spirit: 1.41 percent canceled, about 1,509 flights
- United: 1.35 percent canceled, about 9,578 flights
- Delta: 1.22 percent canceled, about 9,696 flights
- JetBlue: 1.04 percent canceled, about 1,205 flights
- Alaska: 0.98 percent canceled, about 1,905 flights
- Southwest: 0.95 percent canceled, about 6,562 flights
- Hawaiian: 0.91 percent canceled, about 365 flights
- Allegiant: 0.55 percent canceled, about 370 flights
Bottom Line
American Airlines posted the highest cancellation rate among major U.S. carriers in early 2025, with weather driving the majority of scrubbed flights nationwide. Even so, cancellations overall are trending lower than last year, a positive sign heading into the busiest weeks of the travel calendar. Build in flexibility, watch the forecast, and use your airline’s tools to stay a step ahead.
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This article was written by Hunter and edited with AI Assistance
